Transpacific Rates, July to September: A Dip, Then New Highs
China–US spot rates dipped in late July, then climbed through August and September. Shanghai–New York is now above $10,000/FEU. Here is what drove it and what to expect into Golden Week.
Our last market update, at the end of June, looked at the early peak-season surge and asked whether it would unwind. It did, briefly. From early August the direction reversed, with only brief pauses since. By the Drewry World Container Index of September 24, Shanghai–Los Angeles was $7,838 per 40ft and Shanghai–New York $10,373, both well above the June levels that already felt expensive at the time.
The numbers
| Drewry WCI print | Shanghai → Los Angeles | Shanghai → New York |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | $5,750 | $7,149 |
| Jul 16 | $6,272 | $7,879 |
| Jul 23 | $5,878 | $7,598 |
| Aug 6 | $5,894 | $7,893 |
| Aug 13 | $6,244 | $8,706 |
| Aug 27 | $6,818 | $9,333 |
| Sep 10 | $7,352 | $9,726 |
| Sep 17 | $7,712 | $10,394 |
| Sep 24 | $7,838 | $10,373 |
Per 40ft container (FEU). Source: Drewry World Container Index.
Late July: a short unwind
- Rates crested in mid-July. Carriers tried to push increases to around $7,900–8,500/FEU, and those July 15 increases were not implemented.
- By July 23, Shanghai–Los Angeles was down 6% to $5,878 and Shanghai–New York down 4% to $7,598.
- Freightos called it "an early unwind from an early peak season." Extra loaders added capacity, and fewer sailings were cancelled.
August: storms and rate increases reverse the trend
- The August 1 general rate increase (GRI) partly stuck, the first to do so since July 1.
- Typhoon Dolphin shut Ningbo (August 7) and Shanghai (August 8–9), stranding about 2.4 million TEU across North Asia, with berth waits of 7–10+ days. It was the third storm in five weeks.
- Rates kept climbing. On August 13 Shanghai–New York jumped 10% to $8,706. The August 15 GRI then held, and by August 27 New York was at $9,333.
- Typhoon Saudel (landfall August 28) put Yantian on gate controls with a daily appointment quota and caused 3–5 day vessel waits at Shekou.
September: the 17th GRI of the year and a tighter canal
- The September 1 GRI was the 17th increase of 2026 on Asia–US lanes, at $2,000–3,000 per 40ft depending on the carrier.
- Shanghai–New York crossed $10,000 on September 17 and held there on September 24.
- Panama Canal: from September 15, Panamax transit slots were cut to 23 per day (9 Neopanamax). The maximum Neopanamax draft stays at 48.0 ft until further notice.
- Carriers now bill a separate Panama Canal surcharge on Asia–US East Coast and Gulf cargo: ONE $150/TEU, Hapag-Lloyd $130/TEU, MSC $100/TEU, and CMA CGM $500/TEU from September 10.
Into Golden Week: what to watch
- Drewry's Cancelled Sailings Tracker (September 25) expects 58 blank sailings out of 712 planned in weeks 40–44 (8%). The transpacific eastbound trade accounts for 64% of the disruption.
- Book early and ask whether space is guaranteed. A quote at the index floor without guaranteed space is the one most likely to be rolled.
- For East Coast cargo, check whether the Panama surcharge is included, and compare all-water service with a West Coast port plus rail or truck.
- Landside costs moved too. PierPass at Los Angeles and Long Beach rose to $81.26 per 40ft from August 1.
Booking around Golden Week? Send us the lane and cargo, and we'll come back with a rate that includes space.
Sources: Drewry World Container Index (prints June 25 – September 24, 2026); Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker (September 25, 2026); Panama Canal Authority advisories A-29-2026 and A-33-2026; carrier surcharge notices.